Analyzing the Global CO2 Emission per Capita using Fractals

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Allan Elnar

Abstract

This paper analyzes the pattern of global CO2 emission (GCE) per capita from 1960 to 2010. GCE data are treated as a fractal with consideration of the natural cycle of CO2 in the atmosphere. In this state, GCE obeys the self-similarity, irregularity and ruggedness behavior. To identify that this natural state is preserved as well as the possible reasons if deviation from this state is observed is subjected to fractal dimension analysis (FDA). From the GCE data, annual fractal dimensions (FD) were calculated and plotted against time. The same set of data was tested for fractality identifying countries with high and low per capita GCE. Results showed that the frequency distribution plot of GCE exhibited a memoryless function which implied that GCE is expected to increase.
regardless of any interventions and levels of past and current emissions. Meanwhile, the
FD plot showed a damped oscillation function which has direct implication to the
resistance of countries on emission protocols. When this damping persist until a steady
state is achieved, recovering the pre-industrialization levels of GCE is highly improbable.
Moreover, calculated FD’s of GCE is embedded at 1<FD<2. This means that increasing
GCE is attributed to two factors: high tourism activity and oil – production. 

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